NAR Forecast: Why Home Sales Are Expected to Jump 14% in 2026

By Alex Rivlin 5 min read

According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), U.S. home sales are projected to rise by 14% in 2026. This expected boom comes after historically low sales in 2024–2025, driven by population growth, shrinking household size, pent-up demand, and long-term inventory shortages.

Home Sales Hit 30-Year Lows—But a Major Rebound Is Coming

Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), projects a 14% increase in home sales in 2026. To understand why this number matters, we need to look at where sales stand today.

2024 & 2025 Sales Are Shockingly Low

Home sales in 2024—and projected for 2025—are hovering slightly above 4 million, making it the lowest level in nearly three decades.

For context:

  • Normal market years (2018–2019): ~5.3 million sales
  • Peak market years (2005): Over 7 million sales
  • 2024–2025: Just over 4 million sales

Even without counting the COVID-fueled frenzy, we’re significantly below typical activity.

Why Low Sales Matter: The U.S. Needs More Housing Than Ever

1. The Population Has Grown Significantly

  • 2018–2019 U.S. population: ~328 million
  • Today’s population: ~343 million

That’s 15 million more people, all needing housing.

2. Household Size Is Shrinking

The average number of people per household has slightly decreased, meaning:

  • More households needed
  • More housing units required
  • More pressure on inventory

Roommate situations temporarily mask the shortage, but the underlying demand is still building.

3 Reasons Experts Expect a Surge in 2026

1. Pent-Up Demand

Many buyers are sidelined due to:

  • Higher rates
  • Affordability challenges
  • Low inventory
  • Economic uncertainty

Once rates ease—or incomes rise—millions of buyers will reenter the market.

2. Inventory Is Far Too Low

The U.S. has not built enough homes for over a decade.

We need:

  • More new construction
  • More land releases
  • Better affordability policies
  • A developer-friendly economic environment

Until these conditions improve, supply will remain tight.

3. Life Changes Don’t Stop

People move because life moves. The average homeowner stays in their home:

  • 12 years nationwide
  • 8 years in Las Vegas

Life events that will force movement:

  • Growing families
  • Downsizing empty nesters
  • Job relocations
  • Financial changes
  • Divorce, marriage, retirement

Even with low rates trapping people in place, needs eventually outweigh rates.

Why 2026 May Be the Turning Point

We’re currently in a freeze:

  • Sellers are holding onto low rates
  • Buyers are waiting for affordability
  • Inventory is stagnant

But by 2026:

  • Rates may stabilize
  • Income growth may improve
  • Market confidence may recover
  • Builders may increase output
  • People who waited will no longer be able to delay moves

This combination creates the perfect storm for increased activity.

 

Relevant Entities

  • Lawrence Yun – Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors
  • National Association of Realtors (NAR) – Leading real estate organization
  • United States housing market – Geographic and economic entity
  • Las Vegas housing market – Example of faster turnover
  • U.S. population – Growing demographic impacting housing needs
  • Household size – Influences demand for housing units
  • Builders / developers – Supply-side contributors
  • 2026 forecast – Specific economic projection

Entity Relationships

  • NAR publishes national forecasts
  • Lawrence Yun analyzes sales, population, and trends
  • U.S. population growth increases housing demand
  • Shrinking households increase need for more units
  • Low inventory results from insufficient building
  • Market turnover drives future sales

Semantically Related Terms

  • housing demand surge
  • construction deficit
  • economic housing cycle
  • supply vs. demand imbalance
  • real estate recovery timeline
  • demographic housing needs
  • long-term real estate trends

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Why are home sales so low in 2024 and 2025?

High rates, low inventory, and affordability challenges have reduced activity to 30-year lows.

2. What is NAR predicting for 2026?

A 14% increase in home sales, according to Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

3. Why does population growth matter for housing?

More people means more households, increasing demand for housing.

4. How does shrinking household size affect the market?

Fewer people per household means more homes are needed overall.

5. Why will demand rise when rates drop?

Millions of buyers are waiting on the sidelines and will reenter the market once affordability improves.

6. What is causing the inventory shortage?

Years of underbuilding, high land costs, and slow development processes.

7. How long do homeowners typically stay in their homes?

Around 12 years nationally and about 8 years in the Las Vegas area.

8. Why is a sales boom expected in 2026?

Life changes, pent-up demand, and improving affordability will all push buyers back into the market.

If you’re planning a move in the next year or two, now is the time to prepare. The coming surge in activity could create more competition—so let’s build a strategy that puts you ahead of the market. Reach out for a personalized housing forecast and buying or selling plan. 

Hi, I’m Alex Rivlin, a top Las Vegas real estate agent, content creator, and team lead of The Rivlin Group—one of the leading real estate teams in Las Vegas. My team and I specialize in helping buyers, sellers, and those relocating to Las Vegas, Henderson, and the Greater Las Vegas Valley confidently navigate the housing market. Whether you’re looking to buy a home, sell your property, or understand current Las Vegas real estate trends, we’re here to make the process smooth and stress-free.